Friday, February 5, 2010

The Total Cost of Security

In the context of this curve, which illustrates that the total cost of security is equal to the sum of the cost of security measures plus the cost of the losses after those measures, Fred asks,


But is it obvious where you should operate? Is lowest cost necessarily the best?”

The best answer to the question is “close to the middle; “ at either extreme, the cost of error goes up exponentially. Ideally, one wants to plan and operate at the min but that is not knowable in any real sense. That is why one does risk assessments and other attempts to estimate the annualized cost of losses and the value of security measures.

One implication of the curve is that at the far right, it is very expensive to achieve small reductions in losses. Security measures increase dramatically in cost for small reductions in already small losses. Said another way, as the cost of losses approaches zero, the cost of security approaches infinity.

Note that in the middle, the sum curve tends to be fairly flat. That says that any place in the middle is “OK.” There is little danger that one will overspend on security. Long before it becomes inefficient, other limits on available resources will kick in. The real danger is in under spending. The cost of under spending is not so obvious; indeed one may under spend for several years and “get away with it.” It may be only across a few years that it becomes obvious that it is inefficient.

Note that spending on security is balanced by risk. The tolerance for risk is different for different enterprises. For example, small new enterprises are inherently more risky that large mature ones; it is not efficient to pursue low security risk in the face of high business risk. Within an enterprise, risk tolerance may be different in different periods. In some periods, management may tolerate a higher level of risk in an attempt to move net income from one period to another.

The curve can be used to illustrate Courtney’s Second Law, “Do not spend more mitigating a problem than tolerating it will cost you.” However, it is an abstraction. The two curves do not have the same time scale. In any period the cost of security is more predictable than the cost of losses. We plan and measure the cost of security mechanisms annually while the cost of losses may only be known with confidence across decades. On the other hand, one can estimate the cost of losses well enough to avoid gross errors, or, in the vernacular, “Close enough for government work.”

Donn Parker warns about “risk assessment:” it is a blunt tool that can cost more than making the decision wrong will cost. He argues for what he calls “baseline controls” and what Peter Tippett calls essential practices. In combination these low cost controls are very effective and so efficient as to require little justification. This is a subject for another day.

Actually taken across a large enough enterprise, one can measure losses pretty accurately. However, I have only encountered one enterprise, Nortel, that does it. They have a budget for losses, not meaningful at the departmental level, but works pretty well at the business unit level. In the first year that they did it, the variance between what was budgeted and actual was pretty high. However, after a few years of experience, variance was much more within a normal range.

In the long run, the cost of security simply is what it is. It is unavoidable. In the words of the mechanic in the Pennzoil ad, “You can pay me now, or you can pay me later,” but the implication is that one cannot escape this cost. The advantage of the cost of security over that of losses is that it is both knowable and predictable. As long as one avoids gross over or under spending, one is likely to be within the efficient range.

1 comment:

  1. I did some research on where this security cost curve might have originated. At least one early reference is: Quality Planning and Analysis, by J M Juran (3rd Edition, 1993). On page 25 of this book, Juran shows a slightly different cost curve in which the minimum cost of quality occurs with 100% quality. This results from automated quality inspection, products with built in quality, etc. Perhaps with built in application security, secure cloud computing and effective risk insurance policies, we can achieve this type of curve as well!